Apple Domination
Chris Seibold wrote an interesting article about where Apple might take the iPhone brand moving forward. He closed with an interesting comment:
One thing seems certain: the only company that will ever make a viable iPhone killer will be Apple.
Since the return of Steve Jobs, Apple has consistently rolled out products that blow away the competition. The iPhone absolutely shattered the playing field, and no competitor has come close since.1
It’s going to stay that way, for now.
Who can overtake the iPhone?
No other company has been able to pull off an interface as usable and consistent as Apple has. Microsoft’s devices are complex, and their software platform isn’t anything to write home about. I’m an advocate of open source projects, but the iPhone’s closest competitor, Google’s Android, has problems of its own. Android’s UI and API aren’t as polished or consistent.2
It takes a tremendous amount of collaboration to make a product like the iPhone. Hardware makes the job even tougher, but we haven’t even seen a piece of software that could match the iPhone, let alone hardware.
The same goes for OS X / Cocoa’s programming interface; Cocoa’s MVC-oriented architecture has given applications model-view separation by default, enabling developers to present data in different ways without re-architecting the application. OS X’s systemwide integration and excellent APIs have encouraged developers to create usable, well-designed applications.
The iPhone wouldn’t be here today if Apple hadn’t laid a stable foundation with OS X.
No other operating system comes close. We won’t see an iPhone-killer until we see an operating system that can give developers the ability to build rich applications with a system-wide consistent UI. It’s all about the user experience.
The iPhone isn’t perfect.
Granted, the iPhone has plenty of room to improve. It still lacks certain features like cut-and-paste, stereo bluetooth, etc. Apple prefers simplicity whenever possible, but just like with OS X on the desktop, they’ve laid the foundation upon which they can improve the iPhone incrementally. Good luck finding a company that can provide a similar experience today.
We won’t see an iPhone killer any time soon. I predict that any true iPhone-killer will need to innovate and bring something new to the table; simply copying the iPhone now won’t suffice. Clones aren’t killers.
My Predictions
I think a true iPhone-killer will integrate itself with many facets of our lives: calendars, to-dos, home automation, phone, e-mail, IM, and more, but in a much more active way than the iPhone. GPS targeting will provide a boost for location-based services, which can bring a lot of innovation.
The future lies in always-on connectivity to the internet. It’s not really the device that matters at all — the real innovation will come with the ability for us to be connected to the cloud — always, and everywhere.
Ubiquitous connectivity will define the next generation of devices.
More on that to be discussed another time.
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It doesn’t matter whether or not you like the iPhone; the fact remains that the iPhone’s technological power and user experience are tremendously better than any phone on the market. Period. ↩
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I haven’t actually played with an Android device, but from the information I’ve seen, it doesn’t compare to the iPhone’s usability and consistency. ↩
Total Control
The tight integration of hardware and software makes for a more manageable, predictable system. A closed system limits choice, but it is more stable and reliable. An open system is far more fragile and unreliable—this is the price of freedom.
— Leander Kahney (via Inside Steve’s Brain)
